Most people with mild to moderate symptoms do not get worse. While many improve in the short term after surgery this improvement decreases somewhat with time. A number of factors present before surgery are able to predict the outcome after surgery, with people with depression, cardiovascular disease and scoliosis doing in general worse while those with more severe stenosis beforehand and better overall health doing better.

The natural evolution of disc disease and degeneration leads to stiffening of the intervertebral joint. This leads to osteophyte formation—a bony overgrowth about the joint. This process is called spondylosis, and is part of the normal aging of the spine. This has been seen in studies of normal and diseased spines. Degenerative changes begin to occur without symptoms as early as age 25–30 years. It is not uncommon for people to experience at least one severe case of low back pain by the age of 35 years. This can be expected to improve and become less prevalent as the individual develops osteophyte formation around the discs.

In the US workers' compensation system, once the threshold of two major spinal surgeries is reached, the vast majority of workers will never return to any form of gainful employment. Beyond two spinal surgeries, any more are likely to make the patient worse, not better.

Lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) is a medical condition in which the spinal canal narrows and compresses the nerves at the level of the lumbar vertebrae. This is usually due to the common occurrence of spinal degeneration that occurs with aging. It can also sometimes be caused by spinal disc herniation, osteoporosis, a tumor, or trauma. In the cervical (neck) and lumbar (low back) region it can be a congenital condition to varying degrees.

It is also a common symptom for those who suffer from various skeletal dysplasias such as with pseudoachondroplasia and achondroplasia at an early age.

Spinal stenosis may affect the cervical or thoracic region in which case it is known as cervical spinal stenosis or thoracic spinal stenosis. In some cases, it may be present in all three places in the same patient. Lumbar spinal stenosis can cause low back pain, abnormal sensations, and the absence of sensation (numbness) in the legs, thighs, feet or buttocks, or loss of bladder and bowel control.