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Risk factors for pancreatic adenocarcinoma include:
- Age, gender, and ethnicity; the risk of developing pancreatic cancer increases with age. Most cases occur after age 65, while cases before age 40 are uncommon. The disease is slightly more common in men than women, and in the United States is over 1.5 times more common in African Americans, though incidence in Africa is low.
- Cigarette smoking is the best-established avoidable risk factor for pancreatic cancer, approximately doubling risk among long-term smokers, the risk increasing with the number of cigarettes smoked and the years of smoking. The risk declines slowly after smoking cessation, taking some 20 years to return to almost that of non-smokers.
- Obesity; a BMI greater than 35 increases relative risk by about half.
- Family history; 5–10% of pancreatic cancer cases have an inherited component, where people have a family history of pancreatic cancer. The risk escalates greatly if more than one first-degree relative had the disease, and more modestly if they developed it before the age of 50. Most of the genes involved have not been identified. Hereditary pancreatitis gives a greatly increased lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer of 30–40% to the age of 70. Screening for early pancreatic cancer may be offered to individuals with hereditary pancreatitis on a research basis. Some people may choose to have their pancreas surgically removed to prevent cancer developing in the future.
- Chronic pancreatitis appears to almost triple risk, and as with diabetes, new-onset pancreatitis may be a symptom of a tumor. The risk of pancreatic cancer in individuals with familial pancreatitis is particularly high.
- Diabetes mellitus is a risk factor for pancreatic cancer and (as noted in the Signs and symptoms section) new-onset diabetes may also be an early sign of the disease. People who have been diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes for longer than ten years may have a 50% increased risk, as compared with non-diabetics.
- Specific types of food (as distinct from obesity) have not been clearly shown to increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Dietary factors for which there is some evidence of slightly increased risk include processed meat, red meat, and meat cooked at very high temperatures (e.g. by frying, broiling or barbecuing).
Pathologists classify intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) into two broad groups - those that are associated with an invasive cancer and those that are not associated with an invasive cancer. This separation has critical prognostic significance. Patients with a surgically resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm without an associated invasive cancer have an excellent prognosis (>95% will be cured), while patients with a surgically resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm with an associated invasive cancer have a worse prognosis. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms without an associated invasive cancer can be further subcategorized into three groups. They are IPMN with low-grade dysplasia, IPMN with moderate dysplasia, and IPMN with high-grade dysplasia. This categorization is less important than the separation of IPMNs with an associated cancer from IPMNs without an associated invasive cancer, but this categorization is useful as IPMNs are believed to progress from low-grade dysplasia to moderate dysplasia to high-grade dysplasia to an IPMN with an associated invasive cancer.
Drinking alcohol excessively is a major cause of chronic pancreatitis, which in turn predisposes to pancreatic cancer. However, considerable research has failed to firmly establish alcohol consumption as a direct risk factor for pancreatic cancer. Overall, the association is consistently weak and the majority of studies have found no association, with smoking a strong confounding factor. The evidence is stronger for a link with heavy drinking, of at least six drinks per day.
Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is a type of tumor that can occur within the cells of the pancreatic duct. IPMN tumors produce mucus, and this mucus can form pancreatic cysts. Although intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms are benign tumors, they can progress to pancreatic cancer. As such IPMN is viewed as a precancerous condition. Once an intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm has been found, the management options include close monitoring and pre-emptive surgery.