Surgery appears to lead to better outcomes if there are ongoing symptoms after three to six months of conservative treatment. Laminectomy is the most effective of the surgical treatments. In those who worsen despite conservative treatments surgery leads to improvement in 60–70% of cases. Another procedure using an interspinous distraction device known as X-STOP was less effective and more expensive when more than one spinal level is repaired. Both surgical procedures are more expensive than medical management.

Most people with mild to moderate symptoms do not get worse. While many improve in the short term after surgery this improvement decreases somewhat with time. A number of factors present before surgery are able to predict the outcome after surgery, with people with depression, cardiovascular disease and scoliosis doing in general worse while those with more severe stenosis beforehand and better overall health doing better.

The natural evolution of disc disease and degeneration leads to stiffening of the intervertebral joint. This leads to osteophyte formation—a bony overgrowth about the joint. This process is called spondylosis, and is part of the normal aging of the spine. This has been seen in studies of normal and diseased spines. Degenerative changes begin to occur without symptoms as early as age 25–30 years. It is not uncommon for people to experience at least one severe case of low back pain by the age of 35 years. This can be expected to improve and become less prevalent as the individual develops osteophyte formation around the discs.

In the US workers' compensation system, once the threshold of two major spinal surgeries is reached, the vast majority of workers will never return to any form of gainful employment. Beyond two spinal surgeries, any more are likely to make the patient worse, not better.